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LASPE Petroleum Technology Forum
This lecture was presented on Tuesday October 12th at the Petroleum Club in Long Beach

Society of Petroleum Engineers
Distinguished Lecturer 2003-04 Lecture Season

E&P A Dynamic Profitable Growth Business
Aidan McKay
Shell E & P Co.

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Aidan McKay

Abstract:
This general paper addresses the conflicting and competing challenges in E&P. It provides a high level overview of the challenge ahead in meeting global energy demand and also describes the status of the E&P business today and the forces changing the industry nature. It asks where will the industry go to find the oil and gas needed to replace field decline and achieve growth, and what might it cost. Global hydrocarbon demand from well bores is forecast to almost double to around 220 mln boe/d by 2030 in association with the energy needs of a global population of 8 billion. In addition to installing supply capacity for such growth, E&P must also replace reservoir decline at existing fields. Meeting this supply need translates to E&P being a growth business with high single digit growth of supply capacity.

The current world hydrocarbon proven reserves pool is broadly 1100 bln bbl oil, 750 mln boe of gas and 3000 bln boe of unconventional oils like bitumen and oil sands resources. There is sufficient conventional hydrocarbons for 40 years supply at current demand levels and more if unconventionals are included. The historical success of the E&P industry in ensuring demand is met in a volatile and changing world using technology, has perhaps led society as a whole to take energy demand needs for granted. The paper suggests that the future for the E&P industry is going to be much more difficult given the scale of demand growth and the investment levels required which are almost beyond belief.

We in E&P need to educate society to the scale of R&D and investments required, the time taken to access and develop hydrocarbons and to translate them from geological deposits to vital fuels or feedstock’s. For demand to be met, the E&P industry will have to be highly innovative whilst providing acceptable returns for investors. This is a significant task.

Biography:
Aidan is 41 years of age, originally from N. Ireland UK. He graduated from Leeds University in Energy Eng and is a UK Chartered Engineer, married to Caroline, with 3 young children. He has worked for 19 years for Shell after a brief period with Britoil. He followed the traditional technical training in Shell as a production engineer in oil and gas operations and petroleum engineering and has worked in four Shell Operating Units (Netherlands, Oman, UK North Sea, USA DW) and Shell EP Central Office in Holland. He has had the privilege of working on a wide range of projects from polymer flooding and heavy oil development through to deep tight gas development and deepwater development. He also spent time in economics and strategy roles before moving through to roles with increasing managerial responsibility. He spent three years as a Shell EP Board advisor on capital allocation prior to his current role in Deepwater in SEPCo New Orleans as manager for the major projects Nakika, Holstein, Princess. He has always been active in SPE serving in Oman, (North) Netherlands and UK SPE Boards over the last 15 years.

His interests are family life (3 kids under 5), the E&P business, property development, triathlon, rugby, swimming and reading. He has a lot of energy and is really passionate about his work.

LASPE Forum Committee:
Maryam Davari, 213-225-5900x209, mkashfi@breitburn.com
Brandy Fellers, 562-624-3237 brandy_fellers@oxy.com
Rick Finken 562-570-3961, richard_finken@longbeach.gov

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